ZIKA

Modeling intra-mosquito dynamics of Zika virus and its dose-dependence confirms the low epidemic potential of Aedes albopictus

To assess *Ae. albopictus* vector potential for ZIKV and identify key virus outbreak predictors, we built a complete framework using the complementary combination of (i) dose-dependent experimental *Ae. albopictus* exposure to ZIKV followed by time-dependent assessment of infection and systemic infection rates, (ii) modeling of intra-human ZIKV viremia dynamics, and (iii) in silico epidemiological simulations using an Agent-Based Model. Our results reveal a low but existing epidemic potential of *Ae. albopictus* for ZIKV, that might explain the absence of large scale ZIKV epidemics so far in territories occupied only by *Ae. albopictus*. They nevertheless support active surveillance and eradication programs in these territories to maintain the risk of emergence to a low level.